{"id":719,"date":"2019-05-17T03:11:11","date_gmt":"2019-05-17T00:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/chien-tranh-thuong-mai-my-trung-dang-de-doa-kinh-te-toan-cau-nhu-the-nao\/"},"modified":"2019-05-17T03:11:14","modified_gmt":"2019-05-17T00:11:14","slug":"chien-tranh-thuong-mai-my-trung-dang-de-doa-kinh-te-toan-cau-nhu-the-nao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/chien-tranh-thuong-mai-my-trung-dang-de-doa-kinh-te-toan-cau-nhu-the-nao\/","title":{"rendered":"Chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 1 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Theo h\u00e3ng tin Bloomberg, n\u1ed7i lo doanh nghi\u1ec7p d\u1eebng k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu tr\u01b0\u1ee3t d\u00e0i \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, sau khi th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn “\u0111\u00ecnh chi\u1ebfn” th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i m\u1ea5y th\u00e1ng gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c hai n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1i \u00e1p thu\u1ebf l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a nhau.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu \u0111i th\u00eam n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1ec1m m\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (FED) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p k\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

Nguy c\u01a1 suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/b><\/p>\n

D\u00f9 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Morgan Stanley \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 nguy c\u01a1 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u – v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi 2,5% trong th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft n\u0103m 2020 – n\u1ebfu hai b\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn.<\/p>\n

“Ngay v\u00e0o l\u00fac c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c, th\u00ec c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1ea1i n\u1ed5i l\u00ean th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i nguy r\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 to l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 kinh doanh”, chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Morgan Stanley, \u00f4ng Chetan Ahya, nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o. \u00d4ng Ahya nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh “\u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p” t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1ebf quan kh\u00f4ng khoan nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1eefa hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

L\u00fd do \u0111\u1ec3 lo ng\u1ea1i l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 c\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 lo\u1ea1t s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9m kh\u1ea3 quan h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 T\u01b0. Trong \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, doanh thu b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o. T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, doanh thu b\u00e1n l\u1ebb b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd gi\u1ea3m trong th\u00e1ng 4, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 3 trong v\u00f2ng 4 th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ee9c, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, \u0111\u00e3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 0,4% \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong qu\u00fd 1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c v\u1eabn c\u00f2n r\u1ea5t mong manh, b\u1edfi ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c trong th\u00e1ng 5 n\u00e0y b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd suy gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n

D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n th\u1eadm ch\u00ed tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ee3t leo thang m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia lo ng\u1ea1i. Nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a b\u1ea3o h\u1ed9 l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n khi\u1ebfn Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF) h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 4 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay s\u1ebd y\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c H\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf (OECD) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m th\u00e1ng th\u1ee9 12 li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong th\u00e1ng 3, xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2009.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, Bloomberg Economics \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh r\u1eb1ng 1% trong ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Kho\u1ea3ng 4% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng s\u1ebd g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng lan r\u1ed9ng kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng trong khu v\u1ef1c, \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

Doanh nghi\u1ec7p loay hoay<\/b><\/p>\n

M\u1ef9 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00edt h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a sang Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u1edbi 5,1% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 3,3% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn-ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u00edch \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 nh\u00ec th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn tin M\u1ef9-Trung cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd k\u00fd th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh kh\u1ed1i G20 \u1edf Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 6, khi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump v\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p b\u00ean l\u1ec1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u0169ng n\u00f3i h\u1ecd ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ee3t leo thang xung \u0111\u1ed9t m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 b\u1edfi th\u1ebf cho r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ee1 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng gi\u1eefa l\u00fac kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang y\u1ebfu, c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 c\u01a1n s\u1ed1t c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u1eafng xu\u1ed1ng, nhu c\u1ea7u \u00f4t\u00f4, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i\u2026 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t con chip M\u1ef9 Intel m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 “gi\u1eef quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 n\u0103m 2019”, trong khi h\u00e3ng \u0111\u1ed3 u\u1ed1ng Davide Campari-Milano c\u1ee7a Italy nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh “m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5p b\u00eanh”.<\/p>\n

“N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian, v\u00e0 gi\u1edd chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1ea1i tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady”, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 James Bevan thu\u1ed9c CCLA Investment Management nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu \u0111i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd gi\u1eef quan \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ec1m m\u1ecfng h\u01a1n. Sau 4 \u0111\u1ee3t n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, FED \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eebng n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay. Gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y th\u1eadm ch\u00ed n\u00e2ng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng FED c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10\/2019.<\/p>\n

Trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n x\u1ea5u nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u00eam 3 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u00eam thu\u1ebf quan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p, Morgan Stanley d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 0,5% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m trong n\u01b0\u1edbc (GDP) v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi FED, m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n

“N\u1ebfu cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1ebf quan leo thang, \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng”, chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf Joseph Lupton c\u1ee7a JPMorgan Chase nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 1 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. 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