{"id":5598,"date":"2019-09-19T16:24:39","date_gmt":"2019-09-19T13:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/chu-thien-nga-den-tiep-theo-khien-thi-truong-tai-chinh-quoc-te-chao-dao-se-la-gi\/"},"modified":"2019-09-19T16:24:41","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T13:24:41","slug":"chu-thien-nga-den-tiep-theo-khien-thi-truong-tai-chinh-quoc-te-chao-dao-se-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/chu-thien-nga-den-tiep-theo-khien-thi-truong-tai-chinh-quoc-te-chao-dao-se-la-gi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u00fa “thi\u00ean nga \u0111en\u201d ti\u1ebfp theo khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf chao \u0111\u1ea3o s\u1ebd l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef “thi\u00ean nga \u0111en” \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn b\u1edfi Nassim Nicholas Taleb, m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, nh\u00e0 v\u0103n v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1 Wall. Thi\u00ean nga \u0111en l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, r\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm g\u1eb7p, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t khi \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra th\u00ec s\u1ebd g\u00e2y h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.H\u00e3y c\u00f9ng nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a 4 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t.Suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 1981 – 1982: Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng Iran khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i l\u00ean k\u00e9o theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh 13,5% trong n\u0103m 1980. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (FED) ph\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p c\u0169ng t\u0103ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1edbi t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 5,6% c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 5\/1979 l\u00ean 7,5% m\u1ed9t n\u0103m sau \u0111\u00f3. B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c trong n\u0103m 1981, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 7,5% v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 10,8% trong n\u0103m 1982. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a suy tho\u00e1i l\u00ean ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p xe h\u01a1i, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e9p t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ed7i c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y li\u00ean t\u1ee5c s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m trong 10 n\u0103m sau, cho t\u1edbi t\u1eadn khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ebfp theo k\u1ebft th\u00fac.B\u1ea3ng th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng x\u0103ng 10 gallons\/kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng do thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t x\u0103ngSuy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 1987 – 1990: Ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 hai \u0111en t\u1ed1i, th\u00e1ng 9\/1987, \u0111\u00e0 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 22,6% tr\u00ean ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Dow Jones l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t s\u00fang b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9. Ch\u1ec9 trong ba n\u0103m, s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 cho vay \u0111\u00e3 \u0111e d\u1ecda ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. M\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u1ecbu nhi\u1ec1u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 Canada, Australia, Nh\u1eadt hay Anh c\u0169ng b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n theo v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y suy tho\u00e1i. D\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c kh\u00e1 nhanh nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 GDP c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c v\u1eabn \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng cho t\u1edbi 2 n\u0103m sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf) v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p (m\u00e0u xanh) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1975 – 2015. Ngu\u1ed3n: CTS, FedSuy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2001 – 2003: C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ee1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 – P\/E th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh 27,7 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6\/1999, cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 trong 3 n\u0103m t\u1eeb 2001 t\u1edbi 2003 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung euro v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 1\/1\/1999. Tuy nhi\u00ean, suy tho\u00e1i v\u1eabn khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng euro gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 cho \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn n\u0103m 2001, \u0111\u00e2y v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n y\u1ebfu, v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea1nh tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i sau n\u0103m 2002.Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 P\/E th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9. Ngu\u1ed3n: CTS, BloombergSuy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2007 – 2009: S\u1ef1 suy s\u1ee5p n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12\/2007 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 6\/2009 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ch\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103m t\u1ed1i nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9. GDP gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n -5,1%, trong khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 10%. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u00ec kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng cho vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n d\u01b0\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n (Subprime mortgage crisis) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e2m th\u1ee7ng bong b\u00f3ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t \u1edf M\u1ef9. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u00f4 t\u00f4, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, nh\u01b0 Lehman Brothers, AIG, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae v\u00e0 Bear Stearns \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5. \u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i 18 th\u00e1ng, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 787 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0 c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 700 t\u1ef7 USD.Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf) v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP (m\u00e0u xanh) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2006 – 2019. Ngu\u1ed3n: CTS, FedVi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh tham kh\u1ea3o. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung cho th\u1ea5y nguy c\u01a1 v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng “thi\u00ean nga \u0111en” c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1eb1m l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng k\u00e9o theo sau:Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u: M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n \u00edt ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf h\u01a1n tuy nhi\u00ean khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c s\u1ebd v\u1eabn t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. C\u00e1c b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng nhanh trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y n\u00ean suy tho\u00e1i. So s\u00e1nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf suy tho\u00e1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c kh\u00e1 cao. N\u1ebfu t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c g\u1ee3i \u00fd n\u1ebfu quan s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 100 usd\/th\u00f9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y n\u00ean cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp theo. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 l\u00fd do m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa Iran – M\u1ef9 kh\u00e1 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nh\u01b0ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf (tr\u00e1nh leo thang sung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1) v\u1edbi Iran nh\u1eb1m tr\u00e1nh nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u.Bong b\u00f3ng dot com – l\u1ecbch s\u1eed li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i: Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng hi\u1ec7n nay, ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed5 d\u1ed3n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh m\u1edbi h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00f3i quen ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 mang t\u00ednh c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng. \u0110i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 r\u1ea5t cao nh\u01b0: s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t xe \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec7n – Tesla: v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u00e3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t xe \u00f4 t\u00f4 FORD nh\u01b0ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u00e2m, P\/E Amazon: 77 l\u1ea7n, P\/E Alibaba: 33 l\u1ea7n,\u2026 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00f3i quen ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i th\u00ec c\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 trong cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2001).Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 P\/E v\u00e0 P\/S c\u1ee7a 10 c\u00f4ng ty v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9. Ngu\u1ed3n: CTSTheo C\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n\u00a0VietinBank Securities.
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Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef “thi\u00ean nga \u0111en” \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn b\u1edfi Nassim Nicholas Taleb, m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, nh\u00e0 v\u0103n v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1 Wall. Thi\u00ean nga \u0111en l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, r\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm g\u1eb7p, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t khi \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra th\u00ec s\u1ebd g\u00e2y h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c. 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