{"id":5063,"date":"2019-09-04T09:53:25","date_gmt":"2019-09-04T06:53:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/suy-thoai-se-khong-con-xa\/"},"modified":"2019-09-04T09:53:27","modified_gmt":"2019-09-04T06:53:27","slug":"suy-thoai-se-khong-con-xa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/suy-thoai-se-khong-con-xa\/","title":{"rendered":"Suy tho\u00e1i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n xa!"},"content":{"rendered":"

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D\u00f9 c\u00f3 di\u1ec5n ra hay kh\u00f4ng, th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 d\u1ea7n \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i \u0111ang hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu trong suy ngh\u0129 c\u1ee7a h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 7, c\u00e1c l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm tr\u00ean Google \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ed7i lo v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang \u0111\u00f3n nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i \u0111ang lo\u00e9 l\u00ean d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c t\u1eeb m\u1ecdi g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9, c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec1u ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn tranh thu\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111ang g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay \u1edf nh\u1eefng m\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1ebf quan gi\u1eefa Washington v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111ang \u0111\u00e8 n\u1eb7ng l\u00ean ni\u1ec1m tin kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng. Nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 “l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh” hay “kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh” nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o suy tho\u00e1i \u0111ang nh\u1ea5p nh\u00e1y m\u1ed9t m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu<\/b><\/p>\n

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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 8 n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

C\u00f3 l\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 suy tho\u00e1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111ang \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng \u1edf tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9, th\u00ec l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 2 n\u0103m nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 14\/8.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn “l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh”, th\u00ec tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Khi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n th\u00ec t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u1ec1 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf. Theo Credit Suisse, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc 7 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng 22 th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n

GDP<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y cho th\u1ea5y GDP c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111ang ghi nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i. Theo d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 2% tron qu\u00fd II, B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 cho bi\u1ebft. 2% l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb qu\u00fd IV n\u0103m 2018 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 3% so v\u1edbi 3 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n

L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn theo \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o n\u0103m nay. Th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a S&P 500 trong n\u0103m s\u1ebd l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 7,6%, theo FactSet. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 2,3%. C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs v\u00e0 Citigroup h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho n\u0103m 2019 v\u00e0 2020 c\u1ee7a S&P 500, v\u1edbi l\u00fd do n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c, r\u1ee7i ro xung quanh chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong g\u1ea7n 10 n\u0103m v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 PMI \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 49,9 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8, gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb con s\u1ed1 50,4 c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 7. Theo IHS Markit, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ch\u1ea1m m\u1ed1c d\u01b0\u1edbi 50.0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1edbi 50.0 l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111ang b\u1ecb co h\u1eb9p.<\/p>\n

Th\u00e1ng 7, c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e0y t\u1ecf n\u1ed7i lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. H\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung, c\u00f9ng nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1ea5n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c “g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean ni\u1ec1m tin kinh doanh v\u00e0 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u00eau v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p”, theo bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i Cass<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb “g\u00f3c” c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 u t\u1ed1i. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i Cass gi\u1ea3m 5,9% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7, sau khi gi\u1ea3m 5,3% trong th\u00e1ng 6 v\u00e0 6% trong th\u00e1ng 5. B\u00e1o c\u00e1o trong th\u00e1ng 7 cho bi\u1ebft: “Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p t\u1eeb 2 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc: ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i t\u1eeb ‘c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra’ cho t\u1edbi ‘b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 co h\u1eb9p c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf’. D\u00f9 GDP c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea7u qu\u00fd II n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u01a1ng, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u v\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng khi GDP s\u1ebd \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c \u00e2m v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.”<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t phong v\u0169 bi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 “s\u1ee9c kho\u1ebb” c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, b\u1edfi kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Trong n\u1eeda n\u0103m v\u1eeba qua, gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 13%.<\/p>\n

Theo Seven Report c\u1ee7a Tom Essaye, s\u1ef1 lao d\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8 l\u00e0 “di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t” v\u00e0 “th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 \u0111ang qu\u00e1 l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u0129 m\u00f4.”<\/p>\n

V\u00e0ng<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 20% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 5, khi M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c khi\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1ebf quan leo thang. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, v\u00e0ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t “h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n” cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1edf nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u (GEPU)<\/b><\/p>\n

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\"M\u1ed9t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 EPU, m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 lo ng\u1ea1i li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 l\u00e0 342. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 EPU theo d\u00f5i s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n c\u00e1c b\u00e0i b\u00e1o s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1eeb th\u00f4ng d\u1ee5ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, EPU c\u0169ng \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lu\u1eadt thu\u1ebf s\u1eafp h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf: S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00e0ng cao. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 280 v\u00e0o h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 7, khi nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd ki\u1ebfn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t tho\u1ea3 thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Chi ti\u00eau kinh doanh<\/b><\/p>\n

Trong qu\u00fd II, t\u1ed5ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 5,5%, theo b\u00e1o c\u00e1o GDP h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb qu\u00fd IV n\u0103m 2015. Xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cao \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111ang ng\u1ea7n ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai do lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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