{"id":2220,"date":"2019-06-28T02:15:34","date_gmt":"2019-06-27T23:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/co-phieu-va-trai-phieu-deu-phi-ma-nhung-dung-coi-thuong-nhung-nguy-co-dang-sau\/"},"modified":"2019-06-28T02:15:35","modified_gmt":"2019-06-27T23:15:35","slug":"co-phieu-va-trai-phieu-deu-phi-ma-nhung-dung-coi-thuong-nhung-nguy-co-dang-sau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/co-phieu-va-trai-phieu-deu-phi-ma-nhung-dung-coi-thuong-nhung-nguy-co-dang-sau\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec1u phi m\u00e3 nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1eebng coi th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eefng nguy c\u01a1 \u0111\u1eb1ng sau"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hay tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu?<\/b><\/p>\n

Theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Bespoke Investment Group., S&P 500 v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng 5% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 cho th\u1ea5y, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong th\u1eddi gian sau \u0111\u00f3. <\/p>\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1980, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 10 c\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u00f9ng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t n\u0103m. Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft. <\/p>\n

Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n kinh t\u1ebf. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh tr\u01a1n tru. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do v\u00ec sao th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i ngh\u1ecbch gi\u1eefa tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. <\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong n\u0103m nay, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n c\u1ea3 v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c FED s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n

V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2019, FED \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 2 l\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng FED s\u1ebd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi sau khi FED b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi sau khi FED cho bi\u1ebft sau cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n

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Jim Paulsen, chuy\u00ean gia kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a The Leuthold Group, cho bi\u1ebft: “Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u1ea3 n\u0103m m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 v\u1ebb l\u1ea1c quan v\u00e0o t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n nay trong khi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean lo l\u1eafng”. <\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng hay tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e0 b\u00e0i to\u00e1n kh\u00f3. Tuy nhi\u00ean, Paulsen ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1eef quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1eb1ng th\u1ee9 g\u00ec kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho b\u1ea1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, v\u1ed1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh sau nh\u1eefng c\u00fa th\u0103ng tr\u1ea7m v\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. <\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i FED, cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang nu\u00f4i hy v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t tho\u1ea3i thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong khi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh nh\u1eefng thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i do thu\u1ebf quan g\u00e2y ra. C\u00f3 l\u1ebd, n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn. <\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump v\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Trung Qu\u1ed1c T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb g\u1eb7p nhau t\u1ea1i Osaka, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n b\u00ean l\u1ec1 G20 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i chung v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hy v\u1ecdng cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p c\u1ee7a hai nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u1ed1t cho ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 khi ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1ea1ch \u0111\u00edch h\u01a1n 1 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. <\/p>\n

Trong tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 Steven Mnuchin cho bi\u1ebft hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. <\/p>\n

Nguy c\u01a1 suy tho\u00e1i <\/b><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u1ea3 vi\u1ec7c FED c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1eeb nay \u0111\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ng\u00e0y 10\/7, th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hy v\u1ecdng FED s\u1ebd h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. <\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00e1 m\u1edd nh\u1ea1t. N\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn FED ph\u1ea3i s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. C\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u00f9ng t\u0103ng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu kinh t\u1ebf chuy\u1ec3n sang m\u1ee9c suy tho\u00e1i, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m. <\/p>\n

Ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong g\u1ea7n 2 n\u0103m v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6. HIS Markit b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong g\u1ea7n 1 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 75.000 trong th\u00e1ng 5, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. C\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y l\u1ea1c quan bu\u1ed9c FED ph\u1ea3i tr\u00e1nh ra con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 h\u1ecd theo \u0111u\u1ed5i su\u1ed1t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua. <\/p>\n

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“T\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng FED s\u1ebd c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7. N\u1ebfu H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh gi\u1eefa \u00f4ng Trump v\u00e0 \u00f4ng T\u1eadp \u0111\u1ea1t hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, t\u1ea1i sao FED ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t?”, John Davi, c\u1ee7a Astoria Portfolio Advisors, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh. <\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1c quan nh\u1ea5t c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng d\u00e1m tin cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n gi\u1eefa \u00f4ng Trump v\u00e0 \u00f4ng T\u1eadp s\u1ebd cho ra m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed, n\u1ebfu r\u1ee7i ro x\u1ea3y ra, l\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 khi \u00f4ng Trump hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf 25% v\u1edbi to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. <\/p>\n

H\u00f4m 26\/6, \u00f4ng Trump cho bi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u00f4ng \u1ea5y h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng “v\u1edbi n\u01a1i ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang \u1edf”. H\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o ng\u00e2n kh\u1ed1 t\u1eeb ti\u1ec1n thu\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u00f4ng Trump nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n t\u1ecf ra t\u1ef1 h\u00e0o. <\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 “con c\u1edd t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t” c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Trump trong cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua v\u00e0o Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng n\u0103m 2020. Ch\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi lo ng\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft trong m\u1ed9t s\u1edbm m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hay tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu? Theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Bespoke Investment Group., S&P 500 v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng 5% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. 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