{"id":1608,"date":"2019-06-12T01:43:33","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T22:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/2020-se-chung-kien-su-chao-dao-cua-thi-truong-dau-mo\/"},"modified":"2019-06-12T01:43:35","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T22:43:35","slug":"2020-se-chung-kien-su-chao-dao-cua-thi-truong-dau-mo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/2020-se-chung-kien-su-chao-dao-cua-thi-truong-dau-mo\/","title":{"rendered":"2020 s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 chao \u0111\u1ea3o c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Sau 1 n\u1eeda th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 to\u00e0n ng\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf h\u1ea1 m\u1ee9c chi ti\u00eau cho nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edbi, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00e0 s\u1ebd ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i trong khi nhu c\u1ea7u b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00ean cao do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n “rung l\u1eafc”. Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu d\u1ea7u quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 100 USD\/th\u00f9ng th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2020.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u0111ang m\u1edd nh\u1ea1t d\u1ea7n. \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1ec1 n\u0103m 2020 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA) ph\u00e1t \u0111i v\u00e0o h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ec1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 do th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0: s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn gia t\u0103ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng s\u00e2u s\u1eafc.<\/p>\n

“M\u1ee9c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c”, Roger Diwan, m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia OPEC t\u1ea1i IHS Markit.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf cho bi\u1ebft tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Tuy nhi\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u1edf bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e1t \u0111i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1ec1 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020. D\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u1ed1n \u0111ang \u1edf trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ch\u1eb7t cho kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u00f4 nhi\u1ec5m t\u1eeb Nga v\u00e0 l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Iran, Venezuela, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u1edbi 60 USD v\u00e0o tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 20% t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c cao tr\u00ean 75 USD v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4.<\/p>\n

Amirita Sen, nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u1ec1 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf t\u1ea1i Energy Aspects, cho bi\u1ebft: “Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang b\u0103n kho\u0103n t\u1ea1i sao ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3i quan t\u00e2m v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong v\u00f2ng 3 th\u00e1ng, trong khi th\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u1ea3m \u0111\u1ea1m.”<\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0o n\u0103m t\u1edbi s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1edbi li\u00ean minh OPEC+, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp X\u00ea \u00dat v\u00e0 Nga. N\u1ebfu d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang, th\u00ec nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ecb c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e2u h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ban \u0111\u1ea7u, nh\u1eb1m ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef d\u1ea7u tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. OPEC+ s\u1ebd h\u1ecdp trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi t\u1ea1i Vienna \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n

D\u1eabu v\u1eady, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u1edfi s\u1eafc c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 IMO 2020, l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u diesel, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ngu\u1ed3n cung, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn s\u00f4i n\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd.<\/p>\n

Ben van Beurden, \u00f4ng ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Royal Dutch Shell, cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ed3i tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc: “T\u00ednh n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00ec \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn.”<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 c\u1ea3 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng “con g\u1ea5u” v\u00e0 “con b\u00f2” kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y, IMF \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 6% trong n\u0103m t\u1edbi. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1990 v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 1 n\u1eeda so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 14,2% trong n\u0103m 2007.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cung v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea7u – m\u1ed9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m chung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 l\u1edbn. Th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 l\u00e0 c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd h\u01a1n, b\u1edfi kh\u00f4ng ai d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf Iran v\u00e0 Venezuela. N\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 2 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 2,2 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

S&P Global Platts \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 400.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y, trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o g\u1eedi kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5. C\u01a1 quan Th\u00f4ng tin N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (EIA), b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng M\u1ef9, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c 100.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y. Energy Aspects d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef l\u1edbn, l\u00e0 500.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y. IHS Markit d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u1ed5ng th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 n\u0103m t\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 800.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 \u0111ang che l\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf s\u1ebd l\u1edbn h\u01a1n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. D\u00f9 IEA ch\u01b0a c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n chi ti\u1ebft cho n\u0103m 2020, nh\u01b0ng c\u01a1 quan n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u01a1 b\u1ed9 v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng 5 n\u0103m t\u1eeb 2019 \u0111\u1ebfn 2024. Trong b\u1ea3n b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u00e0y, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u1ea1t 102 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i OPEC v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc OPEC \u0111\u1ea1t 71,9 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u00fap ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 OPEC ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 30,1 tri\u1ec7u, g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i OPEC.<\/p>\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u1ea3n b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, IEA \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i OPEC cho n\u0103m 2019 v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u, cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i th\u00ec cung s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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