{"id":1182,"date":"2019-05-31T10:30:11","date_gmt":"2019-05-31T07:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/lieu-trung-quoc-co-pha-gia-dong-nhan-dan-te\/"},"modified":"2019-05-31T10:30:12","modified_gmt":"2019-05-31T07:30:12","slug":"lieu-trung-quoc-co-pha-gia-dong-nhan-dan-te","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/lieu-trung-quoc-co-pha-gia-dong-nhan-dan-te\/","title":{"rendered":"Li\u1ec7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ti\u1ebfp theo B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 13\/5\/2019), v\u00e0 B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a leo thang chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 26\/5\/2019), TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/b><\/p>\n

Sau khi th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung kh\u00f4ng thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng; cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng leo thang, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 sau khi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 D. Trump \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean Twitter (5\/5, gi\u1edd M\u1ef9) tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 10% l\u00ean 25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 200 t\u1ef7 USD h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 10\/5\/2019 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c (\u00e1p thu\u1ebf 8-25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb M\u1ef9 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 24\/8\/2018 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i t\u1eeb 1\/6\/2019); h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (NHTW) c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec1u theo d\u00f5i \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u00ean v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u; ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 NHTW n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c…Theo \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Bloomberg, NHTW c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc (nh\u01b0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, Indonesia) d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y (capital flight) thay v\u00ec \u0111ua nhau ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 Li\u1ec7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 hay kh\u00f4ng? <\/b><\/i>TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi<\/b><\/p>\n

T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2019 \u0111\u1ebfn nay (30\/5\/2019), ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng USD (DXY) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 2,03% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t kh\u00e1c; trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed3ng R\u00fap c\u1ee7a Nga (RUB), Bath Th\u00e1i (THB), Peso c\u1ee7a Philippines (PHP), Rubi c\u1ee7a Indonesia (IDR)\u2026 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi USD; h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi USD (trong \u0111\u00f3 EUR gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng -1,65%; KRW gi\u1ea3m -7,03%, TWD gi\u1ea3m -3,46%, CNY gi\u1ea3m -0,46%; VND gi\u1ea3m -1,05%…).<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 1: Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD (DXY) v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c (%, 1\/1-30\/5\/2019)<\/i><\/p>\n

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T\u00ednh ri\u00eang trong th\u00e1ng 5\/2019, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 25 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i (MSCI currency) gi\u1ea3m -1,2%, l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 8\/2018 \u0111\u1ebfn nay; trong \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh so v\u1edbi USD l\u00e0 GBP (-3,09%), CNY (-2,66%), KRW (-3,1%), TWD (-2,32%), AUD (-1,7%), MYR (-1,45%), SGD (-1,37%), IDR (-1,42%)\u2026; trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, VND m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 -0,67% so v\u1edbi USD l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

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Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7 (CNY) t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay<\/b><\/p>\n

T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4\/2019 (tr\u1eeb n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 2), \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1eb9p v\u00e0 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, sau khi c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i m\u1edbi t\u1eeb ph\u00eda M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 nhanh.<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 tham chi\u1ebfu h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y CNY\/USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u1edfi NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c (H\u00ecnh 3) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng nhanh (c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1) trong th\u00e1ng 2, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong 3 tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 5, sau khi th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng D. Trump (ng\u00e0y 6\/5) v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf t\u1eeb 10% l\u00ean 25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 200 t\u1ef7 USD nh\u1eadp t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb 12h00 ng\u00e0y 10\/5 (gi\u1edd M\u1ef9); \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 -0,4% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 7\/5 (th\u1ee9 Ba); ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 -0,37% ng\u00e0y 10\/5 (th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u), -0,6% ng\u00e0y 14\/5 (th\u1ee9 Ba) v\u00e0 -0,07% ng\u00e0y 28\/5.<\/p>\n

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T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 giao ngay CNY\/USD tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng H\u1ea3i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ee5c (on-shore) c\u0169ng trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng nhanh, trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY c\u00f3 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh (-0,46% ng\u00e0y 6\/5; -0,66% ng\u00e0y 9\/5 v\u00e0 -0,82% ng\u00e0y 13\/5). T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 CNY\/USD t\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Hong Kong (offshore) t\u0103ng 2,45% t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 5 \u0111\u1ebfn nay; theo \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m 21\/12\/2018.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 6\/5-30\/5\/2019, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c CNY b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n trong r\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 khi giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 1,3% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng NZD); v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 0-3% (v\u00ed d\u1ee5, gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 3% so v\u1edbi JPY, 2% so v\u1edbi EUR, USD, HKD\u2026) \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m CNY c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c theo chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng. Hi\u1ec7n m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY kho\u1ea3ng -2,66% trong th\u00e1ng 5 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p khi nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n EUR, GBP, SGD, MYR, AUD, RUB, HKD, NZD chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng g\u1ea7n 60% trong r\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u00ednh t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 CNY \u0111\u1ec1u m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi USD, trong khi ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD v\u00e0 JPY (chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng kho\u1ea3ng 40%) t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nh\u1eb9.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 g\u1ee3i \u00fd \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/b><\/p>\n

Trong th\u00e1ng 5\/2019, CNY m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi USD (2,66%) ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 3 l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh: (i) c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i leo thang trong khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 \u1edf th\u1ebf y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n trong \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 khi\u1ebfn N\u0110T e ng\u1ea1i v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra CNY, (ii) c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t trong r\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u00ednh t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 CNY m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 (nh\u01b0 n\u00eau tr\u00ean), v\u00e0 (iii) v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i do c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m, trong khi r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao…). Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f9ng nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 trong th\u00e1ng 5 v\u1eeba qua l\u00e0 do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ed1 \u00fd can thi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n l\u00e0 gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY v\u00e0 t\u1eeb kinh nghi\u1ec7m \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc (n\u0103m 2015, NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y m\u1ea1nh ra ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng tr\u00ean TTCK Trung Qu\u1ed1c; n\u0103m 2017 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u1ea3i b\u00e1n ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng), d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o NHTW n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd “can thi\u1ec7p” t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh; b\u1edfi n\u1ebfu CNY ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 th\u00eam, c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p r\u00fat v\u1ed1n m\u1ea1nh (capital flight), g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y; \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ecb M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c l\u00e0 “thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7” – m\u1ed9t c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i m\u00e0 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 mong mu\u1ed1n trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111ang qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY.<\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY, trong \u0111\u00f3 Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c Yi Gang t\u1ef1 tin trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef CNY \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c “h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng”. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng Qu\u00e1ch Th\u1ee5 Th\u00e0nh – Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch \u1ee6y ban Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo Bloomberg, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh, trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 CNY m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh so v\u1edbi USD, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 can thi\u1ec7p, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY (nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng l\u00e0m trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i 2016, \u0111\u1ea7u 2017 – Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n 188 t\u1ef7 USD tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu khi \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 7%, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi 15% t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3).<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean, theo nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a BIDV, trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u n\u1eefa n\u1ebfu cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng leo thang v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong trung h\u1ea1n, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 CNY\/USD tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng kh\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c 7 CNY\/USD – m\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 “l\u00e0n ranh \u0111\u1ecf”, l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u00e2m l\u00fd – n\u1ebfu v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u00e1c N\u0110T, v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a b\u1ecb v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua trong 11 n\u0103m qua) (12h00 tr\u01b0a ng\u00e0y 31\/5\/2019 gi\u1edd Vi\u1ec7t Nam, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y \u1edf m\u1ee9c 6,9074 CNY\/USD). Khi \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng, kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Citibank d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n khi \u0111\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd theo \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh. Khi \u0111\u00f3, NHTW Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd can thi\u1ec7p nh\u1eb1m b\u00ecnh \u1ed5n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng theo ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u1edf tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n

T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i<\/b>, TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 thu\u1ed9c Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV tin r\u1eb1ng, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 CNY l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cao<\/b>, v\u1edbi 3 l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh: (i) lo ng\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 r\u00fat v\u1ed1n m\u1ea1nh (capital flight) nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong n\u0103m 2015, (ii) Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n b\u1ecb cho l\u00e0 thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, g\u00e2y c\u0103ng th\u0103ng th\u00eam trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, v\u00e0 (iii) Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ng\u00e0y 25\/5\/2019, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, trong \u0111\u00f3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, m\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u1edf d\u1ea1ng “nghi v\u1ea5n”.<\/p>\n

C\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Theo \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng USD c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng l\u00ean (m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 \u1ed5n), trong khi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n khu v\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0 n\u00eau tr\u00ean. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh (do quan h\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u1ed5n, thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng…), nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam, ng\u00e0y 25\/5\/2019, theo Bloomberg, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng “g\u1eafn m\u00e1c” Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia thao t\u00fang t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi m\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam cung c\u1ea5p cho B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00f4ng tin t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam khi trong b\u1ea3n b\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1ecb M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o di\u1ec7n t\u00ecnh nghi thao t\u00fang t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 20 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb con s\u1ed1 12 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. C\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t sao di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 M\u1ef9, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eb1m c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng linh ho\u1ea1t, k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 USD\/VND s\u1ebd t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, thu h\u00fat FDI, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng… v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u00e1t sao, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a NHNN. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (g\u1ed3m 8 lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 USD, EUR, JPY, CNY, SGD…) trong khi kim ng\u1ea1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 23% t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103m 2018, n\u00ean trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 th\u00ec VND c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0a ra k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng CNY l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cao, song b\u00e0i to\u00e1n t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n (m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0 do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd), \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1c B\u1ed9, ng\u00e0nh, doanh nghi\u1ec7p, \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t sao di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf; t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 \u1ee9ng x\u1eed, can thi\u1ec7p k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi, linh ho\u1ea1t, ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh x\u1eed l\u00fd nh\u1eefng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i, t\u0103ng c\u00e1c g\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ec7m nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, an to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c t\u00edch c\u1ef1c d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, ph\u00e1i sinh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh… nh\u1eb1m t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i, gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u00f3i chung v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u00f3i ri\u00eang. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i, b\u00e1m s\u00e1t di\u1ec5n ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p th\u00f4ng tin, tr\u00e1nh b\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o di\u1ec7n thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n L\u1ef1c v\u00e0 Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 thu\u1ed9c Vi\u1ec7n \u0110\u00e0o t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u BIDV<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ad_1] Ti\u1ebfp theo B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 13\/5\/2019), v\u00e0 B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a leo thang chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 26\/5\/2019), TS. C\u1ea5n V\u0103n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1183,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ban-tin-tai-chinh"],"yoast_head":"\nLi\u1ec7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7? - Favorite News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/vi\/lieu-trung-quoc-co-pha-gia-dong-nhan-dan-te\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Li\u1ec7u Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n t\u1ec7? - Favorite News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[ad_1] Ti\u1ebfp theo B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 13\/5\/2019), v\u00e0 B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a leo thang chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam (ng\u00e0y 26\/5\/2019), TS. 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