{"id":577,"date":"2019-08-21T14:55:37","date_gmt":"2019-08-21T11:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-mnb-tanszek-blog\/"},"modified":"2019-08-21T14:55:38","modified_gmt":"2019-08-21T11:55:38","slug":"mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-mnb-tanszek-blog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-mnb-tanszek-blog\/","title":{"rendered":"Mib\u0151l sejthetj\u00fck el\u0151re, ha \u00fajabb p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g k\u00f6zeleg? \u2013 MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><strong>Claudio Bori\u00f3t, a b\u00e1zeli BIS makrop\u00e9nz\u00fcgyes \u201efenegyerek\u00e9t\u201d el\u0151szeretettel id\u00e9zi az MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog, nemcsak vil\u00e1gos st\u00edlusa, alapos elemz\u00e9sei, de relev\u00e1ns \u00e9s magvet\u0151 felvet\u00e9sei miatt is. Egyik legut\u00f3bbi cikk\u00e9ben arra h\u00edvta fel a figyelmet, hogy m\u00edg a legt\u00f6bb recesszi\u00f3t j\u00f3sl\u00f3 modellben jellemz\u0151en a hossz\u00fa \u00e9s r\u00f6vid hozamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tti k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9get (<em>term spread<\/em>) haszn\u00e1lj\u00e1k el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sre, addig a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenys\u00e9get \u00e9s ciklikus poz\u00edci\u00f3t mutat\u00f3 indik\u00e1torok haszn\u00e1lat\u00e1val ak\u00e1r pontosabb k\u00e9pet is nyerhet\u00fcnk a j\u00f6v\u0151beni \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1sokr\u00f3l. L\u00e1ssuk mit is jelent ez h\u00e9tk\u00f6znapi nyelven, \u00e9s mi a helyzet jelenleg a nemzetk\u00f6zi k\u00f6rnyezetben \u00e9s haz\u00e1nkra vonatkoztatva.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">A p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklusok tet\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9t jellemz\u0151en a re\u00e1lgazdas\u00e1g megszenvedi \u2013 nyit a cikk, amire az eklat\u00e1ns p\u00e9lda a most jubil\u00e1l\u00f3 nagy p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g (GFC). Ennek forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve k\u00eds\u00e9rtetiesen hasonl\u00edt Irving Fisher 1933-ban le\u00edrt ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gdefl\u00e1ci\u00f3s spir\u00e1lj\u00e1ra, amivel az 1929\/33-as recesszi\u00f3 menet\u00e9t \u00e9s nagys\u00e1grendj\u00e9t magyar\u00e1zta a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151k\u00e9ppen:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>A t\u00falzott elad\u00f3sodotts\u00e1g egy p\u00e1nikszer\u0171 pillanat\u00e1ban \u201ead hoc\u201d elindul az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gok nagy m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 le\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9se.<\/li>\n<li>A p\u00e1nikszer\u0171 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-likvid\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00f6sszenyomja a bankm\u00e9rlegeket, \u00e1ron alul eladott k\u00f6vetel\u00e9sek \u00e9getik a bankok t\u0151k\u00e9j\u00e9t, m\u00edg a visszafizet\u00e9sek megsz\u00fcntetik a p\u00e9nzforgalomban r\u00e9sztvev\u0151 sz\u00e1mlap\u00e9nzt, a l\u00e1trasz\u00f3l\u00f3 bankbet\u00e9teket (a p\u00e9nzteremt\u00e9s ford\u00edtottja, avagy p\u00e9nzrombol\u00e1s t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik a bankm\u00e9rlegekben).<\/li>\n<li>A hitelek le\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9se \u00e9s a p\u00e1nik miatt kialakul\u00f3 jegybankp\u00e9nz (k\u00e9szp\u00e9nz, banki tartal\u00e9kok \u00e9s \u00e1tt\u00e9telesen \u00e1llamk\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek) felhalmoz\u00e1sa az M1 p\u00e9nzmennyis\u00e9g sz\u0171k\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9vel \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz forg\u00e1si sebess\u00e9g\u00e9nek lassul\u00e1s\u00e1val j\u00e1r egy\u00fctt, ami defl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zatot jelent a gazdas\u00e1g sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra.<\/li>\n<li>Emellett a v\u00e1llalat\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9sek \u00e9s a k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek \u00e9rt\u00e9ke is zuhanni kezd, cs\u0151dhull\u00e1mot vonva maga ut\u00e1n nem csup\u00e1n a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi, de a v\u00e1llalati szegmensben is.<\/li>\n<li>A profitkil\u00e1t\u00e1sok, vel\u00fck egy\u00fctt a termel\u00e9s, kereskedelmi volumen \u00e9s foglalkoztat\u00e1s radik\u00e1lisan cs\u00f6kkennek, \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos gazdas\u00e1gi pesszizmust \u00e9s bizalomhi\u00e1nyt vonva maguk ut\u00e1n.<\/li>\n<li>A bizalmatlans\u00e1g k\u00e9szp\u00e9nz felhalmoz\u00e1st induk\u00e1l, ami pedig tov\u00e1bbi p\u00e9nzforg\u00e1si sebess\u00e9g lassul\u00e1st jelent.<\/li>\n<li>A fentiek egy\u00fcttesen a kamat \u00e9s finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6rnyezet komplex zavar\u00e1t implik\u00e1lj\u00e1k: bankcs\u0151d\u00f6ket, a hitelez\u00e9si hajland\u00f3s\u00e1g visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9t, a m\u00e9g teljes\u00edt\u0151 vagy \u00faj hiteleken pedig a kamatok megemelked\u00e9s\u00e9t jelentik.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Borio nem felejtette el Fisher szavait, \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklusok egyre n\u00f6vekv\u0151 amplit\u00fad\u00f3j\u00e1ra figyelmeztet. P\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklus alatt a val\u00f3s \u00e9rt\u00e9k-, kock\u00e1zat-\u00e9rz\u00e9kel\u00e9s \u00e9s kock\u00e1zatv\u00e1llal\u00e1s valamint a finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s egym\u00e1st er\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 interakci\u00f3j\u00e1t \u00e9rti. A bankhitelez\u00e9s er\u0151teljes felfut\u00e1sakor a r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyek, k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek \u00e9s ingatlanok \u00e1rai tipikusan robban\u00e1sszer\u0171en n\u0151nek, amelyek fedezetk\u00e9nt tov\u00e1bbi hitelez\u00e9st \u00e9s \u00e1remelked\u00e9st gener\u00e1lnak, addig a pontig, am\u00edg el nem indul a fisheri forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv. A p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklusokat megk\u00f6zel\u00edthetj\u00fck kompozit indik\u00e1torok, de egyszer\u0171 mutat\u00f3k ment\u00e9n is, melyek egyar\u00e1nt n\u00f6vekv\u0151 ingadoz\u00e1sokr\u00f3l, amplit\u00fad\u00f3r\u00f3l tan\u00faskodnak az id\u0151 el\u0151rehaladt\u00e1val, \u00e9s ennek h\u00e1rom f\u0151 kiv\u00e1lt\u00f3 ok\u00e1t szokta megnevezni a vonatkoz\u00f3 szakirodalom:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>A p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi piacok Bretton Woods ut\u00e1n jelent\u0151s deregul\u00e1ci\u00f3n \u00e9s liberaliz\u00e1ci\u00f3n mentek kereszt\u00fcl mindenhol a vil\u00e1gban. V\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 sebess\u00e9ggel ugyan, de trendszer\u0171en \u00e9s egyre globaliz\u00e1ltabban.<\/li>\n<li>Ezzel egy id\u0151ben a jegybankok infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9lk\u00f6vet\u0151 rezsimekre rendezkedtek be, mik\u00f6zben fokozatosan mell\u0151zni kezdt\u00e9k a p\u00e9nz \u00e9s hitelmennyis\u00e9gre vonatkoz\u00f3 kor\u00e1bbi tud\u00e1sb\u00e1zist, \u00edgy alacsony infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 mellett akkor sem avatkoztak be p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi egyens\u00falytalans\u00e1gok fel\u00e9p\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9nek megakad\u00e1lyoz\u00e1s\u00e1ba, ha azt id\u0151ben \u00e9szlelt\u00e9k.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00edna \u00e9s a volt Szovjetuni\u00f3 orsz\u00e1gainak fokozatos becsatorn\u00e1z\u00e1sa a vil\u00e1gkereskedelembe komoly dezinfl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1st jelentett az aggreg\u00e1lt k\u00edn\u00e1lat b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9n kereszt\u00fcl. \u00c9rdekes a p\u00e1rhuzam az els\u0151 vil\u00e1gh\u00e1bor\u00fat megel\u0151z\u0151 id\u0151szak fokoz\u00f3d\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi integr\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1t k\u00eds\u00e9r\u0151 \u00e1rstabilit\u00e1ssal, majd az azt k\u00f6vet\u0151 \u00f3ri\u00e1si v\u00e1ls\u00e1ggal.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">A Borio \u00e1ltal \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edtott id\u0151szakok (Bretton Woods ut\u00e1n k\u00f6zvetlen\u00fcl, valamint k\u00e9t \u00e9vtizednyi deregul\u00e1ci\u00f3val \u00e9s globaliz\u00e1ci\u00f3val k\u00e9s\u0151bb) k\u00f6z\u00f6tti k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9geket a v\u00e1ls\u00e1gjellemz\u0151ik is j\u00f3l \u00e9rz\u00e9keltetik: m\u00edg 1985 el\u0151tt a recesszi\u00f3s id\u0151szakokat megel\u0151z\u0151 negyed\u00e9vekben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s r\u00f6vid kamatok meredek emelked\u00e9snek indultak (negat\u00edv term spread-eket eredm\u00e9nyezve), 1985 ut\u00e1n az \u00e1rstabilit\u00e1s \u00e9s kamatstabilit\u00e1s sem s\u00e9r\u00fclt igaz\u00e1n, \u00e9s a term spread is csak enyh\u00e9n cs\u00f6kkent. Ugyanakkor a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklusokat m\u00e9r\u0151 kompozit indik\u00e1tor, valamint annak r\u00e9szek\u00e9nt a legfontosabb egyens\u00falytalans\u00e1gra utal\u00f3 hitel\/GDP kileng\u00e9s a trendt\u0151l az 1985 ut\u00e1ni recesszi\u00f3kban nagy fok\u00fa magyar\u00e1z\u00f3 er\u0151vel b\u00edrnak. N\u00e9mileg leegyszer\u0171s\u00edtve azt lehet mondani, hogy m\u00edg 1970 \u00e9s 1985 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a v\u00e1ls\u00e1gokat a jegybankok \u201eid\u00e9zt\u00e9k\u201d el\u0151 puszt\u00e1n az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3ra reag\u00e1lva a monet\u00e1ris politikai szigor\u00edt\u00e1suk r\u00e9v\u00e9n, addig 1985 ut\u00e1n a kereskedelmi bankok \u201ecsin\u00e1lt\u00e1k\u201d a legt\u00f6bb galib\u00e1t a t\u00falf\u0171t\u00f6tt hitelez\u00e9s\u00fck r\u00e9v\u00e9n.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><em>A recesszi\u00f3kat megel\u0151z\u0151 \u00e9s k\u00f6vet\u0151 id\u0151szakokban egyes v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3k \u00e1tlagos \u00e9rt\u00e9ke a fejlett orsz\u00e1gokban<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align:right;\"><em>Forr\u00e1s: Borio \u00e9s szerz\u0151t\u00e1rsai (2018)<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">A p\u00e1r h\u00f3napja megjelent glob\u00e1lis p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi stabilit\u00e1si jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben az IMF is sz\u00e1mot vet a fentebb le\u00edrt elm\u00e9leti felvet\u00e9sekkel, \u00e9s le\u00edrja, hogy a v\u00e1llalati \u00e9s \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g szintek t\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1gban \u00e9rtek el kock\u00e1zatos m\u00e9rt\u00e9ket. Egy esetleges recesszi\u00f3 jelent\u0151sen \u00e1t\u00e1razhatja a hiteleket \u00e9s k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyeket, ami \u00e9rdemben sz\u0171k\u00edten\u00e9 a t\u00f6rleszt\u00e9si kapacit\u00e1sokat nem csup\u00e1n a fejl\u0151d\u0151, de egyes fejlett orsz\u00e1gokban is. Az egyre gyeng\u00e9bb min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s\u0171 v\u00e1llalati k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek ir\u00e1nti befektet\u0151i \u00e9tv\u00e1gy az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokb\u00f3l \u00e9s K\u00edn\u00e1b\u00f3l is ind\u00edthat kontrakci\u00f3s hull\u00e1mot, m\u00edg az eur\u00f3pai orsz\u00e1gok szuver\u00e9n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gai, melyek sok esetben a banki m\u00e9rlegeket terhelik, az eur\u00f3z\u00f3na p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi rendszer\u00e9t is vesz\u00e9lyeztethetik. Norv\u00e9gi\u00e1ban a jegybank aleln\u00f6ke adott ki figyelmeztet\u00e9st a Norv\u00e9g Tudom\u00e1nyos Akad\u00e9mi\u00e1n tartott el\u0151ad\u00e1s\u00e1ban, hogy a 40 \u00e9v alattiak h\u00e1romszor annyi hitellel rendelkeznek, mint az \u00e9ves rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 j\u00f6vedelm\u00fck. \u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben a legkir\u00edv\u00f3bb adat tal\u00e1n az, hogy a glob\u00e1lis p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g \u00f3ta a vil\u00e1g ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u00e1llom\u00e1nya az el\u0151\u00e1ll\u00edtott GDP k\u00e9tszeres\u00e9r\u0151l a h\u00e1romszoros\u00e1ra emelkedett annak ellen\u00e9re, hogy az elad\u00f3sod\u00e1s m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t m\u00e1r 2008-ban vesz\u00e9lyesnek \u00edt\u00e9lt\u00e9k a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi elemz\u0151k.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u00c9s hol tart Magyarorsz\u00e1g p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi ciklusa? A magyar h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si \u00e9s v\u00e1llalati hitelez\u00e9sben GDP ar\u00e1nyosan m\u00e9g mindig a fenntarthat\u00f3nak tekinthet\u0151 szintt\u0151l meglehet\u0151sen elmaradva \u00e1ll az \u00e1llom\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><em>Hitelr\u00e9sek Magyarorsz\u00e1gon<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1401\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.hu\/2019\/08\/21\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg\/borio2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio2.png\" data-orig-size=\"2368,884\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"borio2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio2.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio2.png?w=1024\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1401\" src=\"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/08\/1566388536_419_Mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-\u2013-MNB.png\" alt=\"borio2\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;\"><em>Forr\u00e1s: MNB<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Az \u00e1llom\u00e1nyi adatokra azonban n\u00e9h\u00e1nyan (pl. a Bank of England aleln\u00f6ke, Ben Broadbent) azt mondj\u00e1k, hogy meglehet\u0151sen statikus k\u00e9pet festenek a hitelez\u00e9s t\u00falf\u0171t\u00f6tts\u00e9g\u00e9r\u0151l, \u00e9s \u00e9rdemesebb a hiteldinamik\u00e1kra f\u00f3kusz\u00e1lni az egyens\u00falytalans\u00e1gok fel\u00e9p\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9ben. Haz\u00e1nkban val\u00f3ban nagym\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171nek tekinthet\u0151 a v\u00e1llalati hitelez\u00e9s jelenlegi \u00e9ves 14 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9se, vagy a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si hitelez\u00e9s 7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k feletti \u00fcteme (forr\u00e1s: MNB). De ha tov\u00e1bbi \u2013 BIS \u00e9s Borio \u00e1ltal is propon\u00e1lt p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi s\u00e9r\u00fcl\u00e9kenys\u00e9gi indik\u00e1torokkal szeretn\u00e9nk ellen\u0151rizni haz\u00e1nkat, akkor a priv\u00e1t ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gszolg\u00e1lat alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t \u00e9rdemes megvizsg\u00e1lni. Ebben a tekintetben k\u00e9t \u00e9vtizede az egyik legalacsonyabb \u00e9rt\u00e9ken \u00e1ll haz\u00e1nk, vagyis a priv\u00e1t szektor megtermelt, rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 j\u00f6vedelm\u00e9nek csup\u00e1n 7,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka megy a hitelek t\u00f6rleszt\u00e9s\u00e9re makrogazdas\u00e1gi szinten.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><em>Priv\u00e1t ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gt\u00f6rleszt\u00e9sre ford\u00edtott \u00f6sszeg a megtermelt j\u00f6vedelem ar\u00e1ny\u00e1ban<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1399\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.hu\/2019\/08\/21\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg\/borio3\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio3.png\" data-orig-size=\"987,559\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"borio3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio3.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/borio3.png?w=987\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1399\" src=\"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/08\/1566388536_918_Mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-\u2013-MNB.png\" alt=\"borio3\"  \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;\"><em>Forr\u00e1s: BIS<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u00cdgy \u00f6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben azt mondhatjuk, hogy b\u00e1r az \u00fczleti ciklusok soha nem szokt\u00e1k meg\u00e9rni az \u00f6regkort, haz\u00e1nkban egyel\u0151re kicsi az es\u00e9lye, hogy a gazdas\u00e1g er\u0151teljes n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi prociklikuss\u00e1g vessen v\u00e9get \u2013 amennyiben csup\u00e1n a hat\u00e1rokon bel\u00fcl zajl\u00f3 hitelez\u00e9si folyamatainkra sz\u0171k\u00edtj\u00fck a figyelm\u00fcnket.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;\"><strong>Horv\u00e1th G\u00e1bor<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em>Hivatkoz\u00e1sok:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00c1bel Istv\u00e1n \u2013 Lehmann Krist\u00f3f \u2013 Tapaszti Attila: A p\u00e9nz \u00e9s a bankok ellentmond\u00e1sos kezel\u00e9se a makro\u00f6kon\u00f3mi\u00e1ban, Hitelint\u00e9zeti Szemle, 15. \u00e9vf. 2. sz\u00e1m, 2016. j\u00fanius, 33\u201358. o.<\/p>\n<p>BIS Statisztika: Debt service ratio for the private non-financial sector, Data cut-off date: 2019. m\u00e1jus 23.<\/p>\n<p>Borio \u2013 M. Drehmann \u2013 D. Xia: The financial cycle and recession risk, BIS Quarterly Review, 2018. december<\/p>\n<p>Broadbent, Ben: \u201eDebt dynamics\u201d, besz\u00e9d a London Business School-on, 2019. janu\u00e1r 23.<\/p>\n<p>Fisher, I.: The debt-deflation theory of great recessions, 1933 \u2013 Digital version in FRASER<\/p>\n<p>IMF GFSR: Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle, 2019. \u00e1prilis<\/p>\n<p>IMFBlog: Mapping the World\u2019s Financial Weak Spots, 2019. j\u00fanius 20.<\/p>\n<p>MNB: Hitelez\u00e9si folyamatok, 2019. m\u00e1rcius<\/p>\n<p>Nicolaisen, Jon: \u201eWill debt be reduced?\u201d, besz\u00e9d a Norv\u00e9g Tudom\u00e1nyos Akad\u00e9mi\u00e1n, 2019. \u00e1prilis 9.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"735\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.hu\/2018\/08\/13\/egy-nepszavazas-margojara-avagy-a-penzteremtes-alkimiaja\/hg\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2018\/08\/hg.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"373,560\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"HG\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2018\/08\/hg.jpg?w=200\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/mnbtanszekblog.files.wordpress.com\/2018\/08\/hg.jpg?w=373\" class=\"  wp-image-735 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/08\/Mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-\u2013-MNB.jpg\" alt=\"HG\" width=\"135\" height=\"203\"  \/><strong>Horv\u00e1th G\u00e1bor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Vezet\u0151 szak\u00e9rt\u0151, MNB<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Horv\u00e1th G\u00e1bor a jegybank vezet\u0151 szak\u00e9rt\u0151je, jelenleg a hazai monet\u00e1ris politikai ir\u00e1nyults\u00e1g implement\u00e1ci\u00f3j\u00e1val \u00e9s a hat\u00e9kony p\u00e9nzpiaci transzmisszi\u00f3 lehet\u0151s\u00e9geivel foglalkozik. Kor\u00e1bban a P\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi Stabilit\u00e1si Jelent\u00e9s szerkeszt\u0151jek\u00e9nt a rendszerszint\u0171 bankrendszeri kock\u00e1zatok felt\u00e1r\u00e1s\u00e1n \u00e9s a bankm\u00e9rlegek m\u00e9lyebb \u00f6sszef\u00fcgg\u00e9seinek bemutat\u00e1s\u00e1n dolgozott. T\u00f6bb tanulm\u00e1ny t\u00e1rsszerz\u0151je a bankrendszeri versenyk\u00e9pess\u00e9gt\u0151l kezdve a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyek \u00e9s gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s viszony\u00e1n \u00e1t a nemteljes\u00edt\u0151 hitelek kezel\u00e9s\u00e9nek legjobb gyakorlat\u00e1ig.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em>F\u0151oldali k\u00e9p forr\u00e1sa: pixabay.com<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"jp-post-flair\" class=\"sharedaddy sd-like-enabled sd-sharing-enabled\">\n<div class=\"sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded\" id=\"like-post-wrapper-137211104-1393-5d5d30d9ee62b\" data-src=\"http:\/\/widgets.wp.com\/likes\/index.html?ver=20190321#blog_id=137211104&amp;post_id=1393&amp;origin=mnbtanszekblog.wordpress.com&amp;obj_id=137211104-1393-5d5d30d9ee62b&amp;domain=mnbtanszekblog.hu\" data-name=\"like-post-frame-137211104-1393-5d5d30d9ee62b\">\n<h3 class=\"sd-title\">Kedvelem ezt?<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"button\"><span>Kedvel\u00e9s<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"loading\">Bet\u00f6lt\u00e9s\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"sd-text-color\"\/><a class=\"sd-link-color\"\/><\/div>\n<p><h3 class=\"jp-relatedposts-headline\"><em>Related<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.portfolio.hu\/redirect\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg.334873.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Claudio Bori\u00f3t, a b\u00e1zeli BIS makrop\u00e9nz\u00fcgyes \u201efenegyerek\u00e9t\u201d el\u0151szeretettel id\u00e9zi az MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog, nemcsak vil\u00e1gos st\u00edlusa, alapos elemz\u00e9sei, de relev\u00e1ns \u00e9s magvet\u0151 felvet\u00e9sei miatt is. Egyik legut\u00f3bbi cikk\u00e9ben arra h\u00edvta fel a figyelmet, hogy m\u00edg a legt\u00f6bb recesszi\u00f3t j\u00f3sl\u00f3 modellben jellemz\u0151en a hossz\u00fa \u00e9s r\u00f6vid hozamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tti k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9get (term spread) haszn\u00e1lj\u00e1k el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sre, addig a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":578,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-penzugyi-hirek"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mib\u0151l sejthetj\u00fck el\u0151re, ha \u00fajabb p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g k\u00f6zeleg? \u2013 MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog - Favorite News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/favorite-news.com\/hu\/mibol-sejthetjuk-elore-ha-ujabb-penzugyi-valsag-kozeleg-mnb-tanszek-blog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mib\u0151l sejthetj\u00fck el\u0151re, ha \u00fajabb p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g k\u00f6zeleg? \u2013 MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog - Favorite News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[ad_1] Claudio Bori\u00f3t, a b\u00e1zeli BIS makrop\u00e9nz\u00fcgyes \u201efenegyerek\u00e9t\u201d el\u0151szeretettel id\u00e9zi az MNB Tansz\u00e9k Blog, nemcsak vil\u00e1gos st\u00edlusa, alapos elemz\u00e9sei, de relev\u00e1ns \u00e9s magvet\u0151 felvet\u00e9sei miatt is. 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